Steve Jobs predicted that the iPhone will ensnare about 1% of the global phone market, which was about 1 billion last year. So he expects to sell about 10M phones, probably in 2008 when the iPhone is available worldwide.
I have been wondering about how to value the stock since I watched the iPhone keynote address (Sidenote: which might turn out to be as revolutionary as the first imac or iPod keynote). I found this nice comparison chart from Seekingalpha:
Some key observations, based on the criteria of comparison in this chart:
1. Expect Cingular to announce a $100-$200 price subsidy. The iPhone is way overpriced now compared to the rest in terms of retail price and we have yet to know how Cingular intends to package this product to the market.
2. Enterprise email services is a glaring weak point of the iPhone. All the other smart phones are compatible with services such as Intellisync, Visio, Blackberry, Visto, MS Exchange. This chart lists iPhone as having none. We shall await for more confirmation of this from Apple as the launch date nears. This point is crucial for the enterprise market to consider the iPhone as a replacement product since the price point may be too high for consumers and college students.
There is also more on the smartphone market from this BusinessWeek report on the Future of Apple.
Market research firm M:Metrics estimates that fewer than 6.2 million smartphones were in use in the U.S. as of the end of November. Of those, 2 million were based on Microsoft (MSFT) software, 1.76 million were BlackBerries, 1.72 million were Palm devices, and some 669,000 ran the Symbian operating system from London-based Symbian Limited, which is jointly owned by several companies, including Nokia, Ericsson (ERIC), Siemens (SI), and Panasonic (MC).
More analysis on the iPhone launch and the AAPL stock can be found here.